Disruption at 36,000 km

4 days ago
2 min read

High above the skies of central Europe, a crime was being planned, the high-tech equivalent of a bank robber casing the joint. On the ground, it was hard to even tell that there was any reason for alarm - but there were clues.

"In November 2024, Professor Todd Humphreys, a GPS expert at the University of Texas Austin, got a mysterious tip-off: Look at two specific days at exact times in a data set collected years earlier by a network of GPS monitoring stations."

So began a story that had all the twists and turns of a modern whodunnit, including: an antagonist (a Russian satellite), a weapon (a signal designed for widespread GPS interference), and a (potential) victim: all of us.

There is no crime - yet. But the motive for these tests are clear: disruption of a critical signal we rely on for all transportation, communications, financial transactions, and power.

Global MapAn elegant, simple iconographic map of the world made of thin, glowing golden data lines. A dark, solid shadow or silhouette of a satellite cone extends from the top of the frame, casting a shadow that turns a section of the glowing lines completely dark and dead.

GPS has practically become a “background feature of our everyday world," but "this state of affairs has allowed GPS to become one of the most systematically exploited technologies in the world." And it isn't isolated to just one bad actor; “There is every reason to believe China’s BeiDou global navigation satellite system has the ability to imitate American GPS signals."

There is a widespread belief that GPS is rock solid, that an alternative or backup is unnecessary.

But consider this tale:

Almost two decades ago, there as an infamous exchange at a Launch Vehicle panel at a space conference.

One of the panelists from SpaceX (at the time, an unproven upstart) told the audience that they had a dream that rocket launches would be as commonplace as boarding a flight, that reusable rockets were needed because we don't "throw away airplanes every time we fly."

The next panelist, from a Major Launch Vehicle Company, got in a nice jab: "dreams are great, but then the alarm goes off and you wake up." The audience laughed.

We know how that story ends: a record-breaking IPO for a company that now accounts for over half of all global launches and satellites on orbit.

Morale of the story: disruption comes for everything. Even GPS.

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