The Evolution of Space

In the last newsletter, we laid out the history of quantum from early theory to modern commercialization, thanks in part to government funding kicked off by the Manhattan Project. But there are also similar parallels to the space industry.

The Space Race (1950 – 1969)

It has been 80 years since mankind first slipped the surly bonds of Earth at the tail end of World War II, 68 years and 64 years since the first satellite and human in space, respectively, and 56 years since “one small step for man” on the moon. This breakneck pace of achievement had its own Manhattan Project, spurred by a World War and a Cold War.In those early years, space was the domain of governments. The early space race was between enemies that didn’t want “to boldly go where no man has gone before,” but instead used space as a cover for developing ballistic missiles and spying. That changed with the Sputnik moment, and all of a sudden governments were using space to plant flags and claim bragging rights.

The Old Space Era (1989 – 2014)

But, as we have seen with the quantum industry, this government largess enabled development of practical satellites and launch vehicles, paving the way to commercial exploitation. After the last astronaut came back from the moon, and the iron curtain fell, space became a proper business. With the development subsidized, satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch vehicle providers already had global reach. But access to space was expensive and risky, so the business of space remained subsidized by governments and large sovereign telcos. And space imagery, science, exploration, and position, navigation, and timing (PNT) were still the domain of civil agencies.

The New Space Era (2014 – today)

A lot of ink has been spilled on the New Space Revolution, and on how, in the last decade, nearly $350B in investment in over 2000 new space companies is expected to grow to a $1.8T market by 2035. A lot of the credit goes to SpaceX, to be sure, but there were other pioneers: PanAmSat (and their infamous Spot logo), ABS, Skybox, and others, that showed that space could be a commercial business. Their success reduced the cost of access to space has by two orders of magnitude, which, in turn, increased the number of satellites to over 2000 a year! This has created is a new trend towards convergence: space is no longer “the final frontier” – it is simply an extension of Earth. Traditional communication satellites are developing Direct-to-Device (D2D) and Satellite-to-Device (S2D) that integrate "satellite connectivity with terrestrial networks," space tourism is taking off, satellite imagery and video are readily available, and commercial companies are going to orbit and the moon.With progress comes the negative side effect: the Earth's problems are also extending to space, whether it is conflict, congestion, or pollution (see below,"Dive Deeper"). But space remains more than a place of business. Every human that has had the privilege of seeing the Earth, from space, as a "separate zip code," has experienced the overwhelming emotion of the Overview Effect: the awareness that Earth is a “tiny, fragile ball of life.”

Last Newsletter Theme: The Quantum Black Box

🎓 Dive Deeper...

As space becomes more accessible, business opportunities are flourishing. But with space traffic comes new problems.One set of problems comes fromThe shear number of new satellites, which has grown from "nearly 3 thousand in 2020 to almost 11 thousand in 2024." is creating a raft of new previously unforseen problems for:

• Astronomers that are worried about "light pollution that will affect even the remotest earthbound stargazer."

• The existing satellite networks and astronauts that are at risk due to crowding of satellites and space debris that could lead to a Kessler Syndrome, similar to the movie Gravity.

• Polution on Earth, caused by the de-orbiting satellites and other orbital debris that are re-entering the Earth's atmosphere and creating "concerns over the rising concentrations of metal particles and gases from satellites that can linger in the stratosphere for years, potentially catalyzing the destruction of ozone."

And this venture into space are also starting to create concern that a future war or conflict will extend into space - a literal Star War. The battle won't be fought between astronauts on the space station - though space lasers may be involved.This concern is exacerbated by the modern world's reliance on GPS. If GPS was ever knocked out (and there are a lot of ways to do this, both overt and subtle), the world's networks, telecommunications, data centers, ATM and credit card transactions, and eventually power grids, would all degrade and possibly fail. A problem that malicious parties know all too well.