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Writer's pictureDAVID MITLYNG

Weekly-Takeaways April 4, 2024

Updated: Oct 18

Theme of the Week

The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of NTNs

The convergence of satellite and cellular is all the rage lately, enabled by the growth of non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) that fulfill a vision of true global uninterrupted communications.This isn't a new concept though. In the latter part of the twentieth century, satellites were the only option for remote communications. In this "Old Space" era, large expensive satellites were controlled by space agencies, telcos, and multi-national satellite operators.Then along came Iridium with an audacious plan to provide global mobile telephone communications. Unfortunately, this first iteration of the NTN failed badly: “Planned in the mid-1980s, the system was archaic by the time it was deployed in 1998, offering global communications from a brick-size, $3,000 phone at charges from $6 to $30 a minute.”As cell towers and fiber networks expanded in the 21st century, satellite operators pivoted to enterprise and direct-to-home broadcasts (like DirecTV and DISH), backhaul, remote and mobile communications.Then came the New Space era. Nearly 2000 new companies backed by over $1/4T since 2010 transformed the space industry and inspired a new generation of NTNs like Starlink, a resurrected IridiumOneWebO3b mPOWERKuiperGlobalstar, and Lightspeed. So what's changed?

  1. The cost of satellite systems dropped by orders of magnitude.

  2. There are still 2.9B unconnected people across the globe.

  3. And, most important, the ubiquity of the internet linking to 18 billion cell phones has created an addiction to connectivity. We now expect it everywhere.

The NTNs are still in early stages, but they are already forcing change among traditional satellite operators, and are even starting to make the telcos wary.The other potential disruption: the relationship between government and commercial space (see below). The roles are reversing.

 

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Government and military agencies tend to own their own space assets, but that is starting change. Part of this movement is to increase the resilience of mission-critical space assets "in the face of system failures, environmental challenges, or adversary actions."Up until recently, satellites "were designed for a peaceful, benign environment without a threat."But those days are over - adversaries have demonstrated many ways to knock out a satellite. Today, "resiliency is baked into all the conversations" within the US military as they focus on proliferated constellations of satellites that maintain mission functionality "even if some elements are lost."Stated another way: “We'll put up hundreds and hundreds of satellites…[that] are more affordable than the missiles that you need to shoot them down.”But change is hard. Military planning is built around large and expensive systems that take many years to deliver. So the US Department of Defense released their first Commercial Space Integration Strategy "that will allow for commercial-built space solutions to be used for some operations," the US Space Force is developing their own commercial space strategy, and modifications to NTNs are already under consideration.This is a major shift of philosophy for these groups that realize they need "to take advantage of recent innovations in the commercial space sector, which has experienced exponential growth in technology advancements and capital in recent years."

 

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